The Onshore Energy Services Group

IMechE report advises a greater focus on shale gas exploration

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A new report from the Institute of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE) warns of an electricity supply crunch as a result of the Government’s commitment to phasing-out coal-fired power generation by 2025.

It says that the UK will face an electricity supply crisis in the next decade if coal-fired power generation ceases in 2025, as planned, because there simply isn’t anything to replace it.

The report warns that demand for electricity is likely to outstrip supply by up to 55%, with Head of Energy and Environment, Jenifer Baxter, saying it is “almost impossible” for UK electricity demand to be met by 2025.

It presents four potential scenarios, saying that “under our first three scenarios shale gas extracted in the UK will be key to avoid far greater imports.”

A look at the data shows how stark the problem really is.

According to Chapter 5 of the Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES), 2014 saw coal supply 34% of electricity demand. All fossil fuels together provided 61% of electricity.

Without grid-scale storage of electricity from intermittent wind, wave and solar renewables, and a lack of nuclear new build to provide baseload, it is difficult to see what will replace coal in the next decade – especially with electricity demand expected to rise as a consequence of a growing population, more use of electric vehicles and greater use of electric space heating in homes.

* Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent

Increasing the quantity of gas used in electricity generation appears to be the most obvious solution, not least because of its rapid dispatch capability, but as the IMechE report shows, without a domestic source of supply, the UK will become increasingly reliant on expensive imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) decreasing security and sustainability of supply.

What the report doesn’t appear to recognise is the limited chances for growth in “other renewables” other than perhaps anaerobic digestion and plant biomass: electricity produced from landfill gas, sewage sludge digestion, biodegradable energy-from-waste and animal biomass has remained largely static in the last four years, which means significant new renewables capacity is likely to have to come from wind and solar.

However, community opposition to energy developments is by no means limited to shale gas, with a number of high profile cases showing that onshore wind and large-scale solar farms are also often contested.

Without greater public acceptance of energy production in all its forms, keeping the lights on is going to become a significant and costly challenge in the years ahead.